Malware Predictions for 2014.

What if you could see into the future? Or at least get a glimpse into the future of technology. More specifically malware, because that is what this blog is here for.

Using what we know about malware today, we can make predictions about what we might be seeing in the future. This predictions are not random, but actual diagnostic reasoning that gives us a clue as to what is coming.

In short, this blog post gives us a glimpse into what's coming to the world of malware very soon.

#1: Malware targeted at Windows XP will rise dramatically.

Reasoning: Malware writers have done this before; when Microsoft stops supporting an operating system, they use exploits that will not be patched to infect users with malware. That being said, none of that can compare with the amount of malware that we have today. This is something that I am certain of. The temptation of Windows XP will be too much for malware writers to resist.

Predicted Probability: 100%

#2: CryptoLocker-style ransomware will become more common.

Reasoning: Would you say making $5 million in one month is profitable business? How about if you have to do nothing but make changes to a program and get paid?

The writers of CryptoLocker have proven this: The type of infection that they put out is an effective way to make money. And because most modern malware is meant to make money in some way, malware writers will flock to this type of ransomware.

Predicted Probability: 90%

#3 New conventional malware will go down (But that’s not a good thing.)

Reasoning: Antivirus software has become better at detecting new malware throughout the years. And detection rates have remained high for some time now with the exception of malware that conventional antivirus software just is not equipped to really handle. Because of this, less money will go into the pockets of malware writers. And as I have said before, if the writers are bankrupt, they cannot make more malware.

The downside? Malware writers will see this and will realize that the old business model just is not working anymore. This plays into my first two predictions quite nicely. They will make their attacks more complex and harder for antivirus software to detect effectively.

Predicted Probability: 75%-80%

#4: Smart TVs will become a vector for infection.

Reasoning: Those newfangled Smart TVs can only get smarter. They will get smarter to the point that they might even be able to replace computers to a degree. Malware writers will see this and will start making some sort of malware for the Smart TV.

The prediction is a bit like rolling chicken bones for me. I predicted this privately last year, and that did not happen. My theory on that is that I predicted it too early.

Predicted Probability: 35%-55%

#5: Rogue antivirus software will become obsolete. (On Windows computers at least)

Reasoning: Rogues have been a dying breed of malware for about three years now. And throughout those three years, a few security professionals (and myself) have said that by next year, rogues will be dead. They’re dying, they are not completely dead yet.

Antivirus software has gotten a lot better at detecting this type of malware, where before no antivirus could really touch them. Then again, a lot more people know about rogues then they did back in 2006 when they first started infecting people.

The downside? We only just this year saw rogues starting to really look to other platforms. I’m sure that some of my readers will remember what I have said about Android rogues.

I’m not going to put 100% behind this one because the writers of this type of malware could still have something up their collective sleeve that we have not seen before. But with the fact that there are less and less rogues, this seems like a sound prediction to make.

Predicted Probability: 85%

Thank You for reading. I invite readers to comment with any questions or comments.